SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2021 Jul 27 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2021 Jul 27 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2021 Aug 03 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 7,364 Primaries, 21,393 Secondaries (58,916 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
48803 TIANZHOU-2 [+] 2.099 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
48852 SHENZHOU-12 [+] 2.099 2021 Jul 27 00:00:00.000 2021 Jul 27 00:00:00.000 2021 Aug 03 00:00:00.000
48943 OBJECT BS [+] 1.812 4.457E-02 0.002 0.009 0.000
48962 OBJECT CM [-] 1.746 2021 Jul 27 00:00:00.000 2021 Jul 28 09:30:58.777 2021 Jul 30 11:26:18.128
44757 STARLINK-1034 [+] 4.691 2.073E-02 0.003 0.014 4.636
46576 STARLINK-1677 [+] 5.095 2021 Jul 31 10:06:35.341 2021 Jul 31 10:06:36.420 2021 Jul 31 10:06:37.499
45185 STARLINK-1216 [+] 5.428 1.707E-02 0.004 0.015 6.949
46064 STARLINK-1583 [+] 5.221 2021 Jul 31 17:26:04.356 2021 Jul 31 17:26:05.076 2021 Jul 31 17:26:05.795
44970 STARLINK-1093 [+] 1.348 1.144E-02 0.005 0.018 6.964
46327 STARLINK-1673 [+] 1.074 2021 Jul 27 21:02:18.067 2021 Jul 27 21:02:18.785 2021 Jul 27 21:02:19.503
37793 APRIZESAT 6 [+] 1.502 1.032E-02 0.005 0.020 3.203
40510 DMSP 5D-2 F13 DEB [-] 1.578 2021 Jul 28 00:17:07.649 2021 Jul 28 00:17:09.210 2021 Jul 28 00:17:10.771
44929 STARLINK-1121 [+] 5.255 9.196E-03 0.005 0.021 4.647
47178 STARLINK-1912 [+] 5.128 2021 Jul 31 16:15:30.032 2021 Jul 31 16:15:31.108 2021 Jul 31 16:15:32.184
16881 COSMOS 1766 [?] 1.773 5.111E-03 0.021 0.030 15.171
44405 LEMUR-2-DUSTINTHEWIND [+] 1.765 2021 Jul 28 07:22:18.082 2021 Jul 28 07:22:18.412 2021 Jul 28 07:22:18.741
43258 IRIDIUM 143 [+] 6.852 4.614E-03 0.008 0.029 6.948
30093 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.712 2021 Aug 02 03:21:11.572 2021 Aug 02 03:21:12.291 2021 Aug 02 03:21:13.011
45546 STARLINK-1375 [+] 6.553 4.027E-03 0.016 0.043 12.489
12586 SL-3 R/B [-] 6.466 2021 Aug 02 00:16:54.324 2021 Aug 02 00:16:54.724 2021 Aug 02 00:16:55.124

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The TLE Data button links to a page which provides the TLEs used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.