SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Jun 24 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Jun 24 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Jul 01 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,958 Primaries, 16,503 Secondaries (22,110 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25346 IRIDIUM 75 [+] 3.781 2.329E-02 0.010 0.038 6.397
36557 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.155 2017 Jun 26 11:51:30.561 2017 Jun 26 11:51:31.343 2017 Jun 26 11:51:32.125
41899 YIJIAN [+] 1.388 1.647E-02 0.005 0.012 13.438
36247 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.633 2017 Jun 24 06:55:09.224 2017 Jun 24 06:55:09.596 2017 Jun 24 06:55:09.968
13718 METEOR 2-9 [?] 3.447 6.311E-03 0.031 0.062 13.901
27845 QUAKESAT [-] 3.712 2017 Jun 26 06:59:39.509 2017 Jun 26 06:59:39.869 2017 Jun 26 06:59:40.229
42732 POLYITAN-2-SAU [+] 3.326 2.573E-03 0.010 0.041 0.003
42734 EXALTA-1 [+] 3.326 2017 Jun 25 22:09:49.333 2017 Jun 25 22:30:03.256 2017 Jun 25 22:50:02.793
24277 MIDORI (ADEOS) [-] 3.490 2.187E-03 0.118 0.206 14.410
36257 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 17.721 2017 Jun 26 09:15:11.289 2017 Jun 26 09:15:11.636 2017 Jun 26 09:15:11.982
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
27376 IRIDIUM 96 [+] 1.903 2.060E-03 0.044 0.098 13.476
40721 DMSP 5D-2 F13 DEB [-] 2.330 2017 Jun 24 19:07:35.734 2017 Jun 24 19:07:36.105 2017 Jun 24 19:07:36.476
40119 BRITE-PL 2 [+] 7.839 1.906E-03 0.030 0.043 15.111
18153 SL-14 R/B [-] 7.841 2017 Jun 30 17:11:55.535 2017 Jun 30 17:11:55.866 2017 Jun 30 17:11:56.197
23642 MOLNIYA 3-47 [?] 6.918 1.844E-03 0.028 0.108 6.811
18274 SL-8 DEB [-] 6.554 2017 Jun 28 23:50:00.474 2017 Jun 28 23:50:01.208 2017 Jun 28 23:50:01.942
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 7.862 1.704E-03 0.192 0.437 13.344
24944 IRIDIUM 29 [-] 7.871 2017 Jun 30 18:32:00.113 2017 Jun 30 18:32:00.486 2017 Jun 30 18:32:00.860
16917 COSMOS 1771 [?] 7.821 1.025E-03 0.084 0.136 14.424
37425 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 8.990 2017 Jun 30 07:58:29.307 2017 Jun 30 07:58:29.653 2017 Jun 30 07:58:30.000

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 June 24 07:08:01 UTC