SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Feb 24 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Feb 24 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Mar 03 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,230 Primaries, 16,765 Secondaries (23,757 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
42971 PROGRESS-MS 07 [+] 1.429 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 1.429 2018 Feb 24 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 24 00:00:00.000 2018 Mar 03 00:00:00.000
43063 SOYUZ-MS 07 [+] 1.429 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 1.429 2018 Feb 24 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 24 00:00:00.000 2018 Mar 03 00:00:00.000
42937 SOYUZ-MS 06 [+] 1.429 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 1.429 2018 Feb 24 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 24 00:00:00.000 2018 Mar 03 00:00:00.000
20670 METEOR 2-19 [?] 1.386 3.882E-03 0.047 0.067 14.740
04935 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 1.030 2018 Feb 24 19:00:44.952 2018 Feb 24 19:00:45.292 2018 Feb 24 19:00:45.631
10744 COSMOS 996 [?] 3.913 2.505E-03 0.020 0.083 2.125
27002 KOMPASS [?] 4.080 2018 Feb 27 10:18:52.324 2018 Feb 27 10:18:54.677 2018 Feb 27 10:18:57.029
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
07714 METEOR 1-21 [?] 7.053 2.314E-03 0.061 0.087 14.797
41262 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 6.956 2018 Mar 02 08:15:28.414 2018 Mar 02 08:15:28.752 2018 Mar 02 08:15:29.090
20510 OKEAN-2 [?] 3.040 2.054E-03 0.052 0.127 13.089
35058 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.845 2018 Feb 26 06:12:28.543 2018 Feb 26 06:12:28.925 2018 Feb 26 06:12:29.307
15085 COSMOS 1579 [?] 5.375 1.800E-03 0.078 0.140 14.145
24772 COSMOS 2341 [?] 5.241 2018 Feb 28 18:00:40.601 2018 Feb 28 18:00:40.954 2018 Feb 28 18:00:41.307
25118 ORBCOMM FM06 [+] 1.614 1.575E-03 0.023 0.083 8.688
36881 MINOTAUR DEB [-] 2.961 2018 Feb 25 04:25:51.112 2018 Feb 25 04:25:51.687 2018 Feb 25 04:25:52.263
25173 IRIDIUM 53 [+] 0.676 1.451E-03 0.064 0.096 14.899
30207 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 0.687 2018 Feb 24 04:34:02.170 2018 Feb 24 04:34:02.506 2018 Feb 24 04:34:02.841

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2018 February 24 02:23:44 UTC