SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Oct 17 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Oct 17 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Oct 24 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,097 Primaries, 16,682 Secondaries (22,863 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
08845 METEOR 1-25 [?] 2.321 1.682E-02 0.020 0.037 14.141
42324 DMSP 5D-2 F13 DEB [-] 3.077 2017 Oct 19 01:06:28.583 2017 Oct 19 01:06:28.937 2017 Oct 19 01:06:29.291
25290 IRIDIUM 67 [+] 6.437 8.306E-03 0.018 0.058 10.648
35483 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 6.803 2017 Oct 22 17:31:59.111 2017 Oct 22 17:31:59.581 2017 Oct 22 17:32:00.051
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 1.692 8.113E-03 0.060 0.203 9.452
20876 CZ-4 DEB [-] 1.454 2017 Oct 18 00:41:02.389 2017 Oct 18 00:41:02.917 2017 Oct 18 00:41:03.446
27941 NIGERIASAT-1 [-] 3.637 6.717E-03 0.006 0.025 5.264
36454 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.759 2017 Oct 20 01:28:20.290 2017 Oct 20 01:28:21.240 2017 Oct 20 01:28:22.189
10137 COSMOS 926 [?] 3.853 3.218E-03 0.016 0.048 10.787
30309 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.725 2017 Oct 20 03:52:27.320 2017 Oct 20 03:52:27.783 2017 Oct 20 03:52:28.246
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
37855 M-CUBED & EXP-1 PRIME [+] 6.366 2.735E-03 0.010 0.039 4.027
35856 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 6.367 2017 Oct 22 21:34:48.218 2017 Oct 22 21:34:49.459 2017 Oct 22 21:34:50.701
33492 GOSAT (IBUKI) [+] 3.092 2.733E-03 0.009 0.040 0.295
37032 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.126 2017 Oct 19 21:24:48.435 2017 Oct 19 21:25:05.397 2017 Oct 19 21:25:22.360
15597 COSMOS 1634 [?] 6.680 1.381E-03 0.050 0.156 10.552
17526 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.923 2017 Oct 23 11:21:22.972 2017 Oct 23 11:21:23.445 2017 Oct 23 11:21:23.919
10352 COSMOS 951 [?] 0.628 1.147E-03 0.046 0.079 14.248
18411 SL-16 DEB [-] 1.092 2017 Oct 17 06:02:45.167 2017 Oct 17 06:02:45.518 2017 Oct 17 06:02:45.869
08293 METEOR 1-22 [?] 2.888 1.110E-03 0.085 0.129 14.741
31534 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 9.098 2017 Oct 19 04:32:02.648 2017 Oct 19 04:32:02.987 2017 Oct 19 04:32:03.326

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 October 17 09:33:00 UTC