SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Jun 23 16:07 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Jun 23 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Jun 30 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,241 Primaries, 17,014 Secondaries (24,182 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
21574 ERS-1 [-] 3.361 1.959E-03 0.065 0.177 12.174
33761 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.617 2018 Jun 26 05:49:46.974 2018 Jun 26 05:49:47.384 2018 Jun 26 05:49:47.794
27424 AQUA [+] 6.839 1.511E-03 0.079 0.244 10.783
31086 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.679 2018 Jun 29 18:00:47.924 2018 Jun 29 18:00:48.387 2018 Jun 29 18:00:48.850
06154 COSMOS 516 [?] 2.738 1.149E-03 0.056 0.182 10.025
29770 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.238 2018 Jun 25 15:20:20.726 2018 Jun 25 15:20:21.225 2018 Jun 25 15:20:21.723
27001 METEOR-3M [?] 3.582 1.014E-03 0.059 0.085 14.681
06708 SL-8 R/B [-] 3.572 2018 Jun 26 12:22:58.703 2018 Jun 26 12:22:59.043 2018 Jun 26 12:22:59.384
17239 COSMOS 1808 [?] 5.768 9.254E-04 0.039 0.116 11.098
26841 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 5.677 2018 Jun 28 20:13:30.493 2018 Jun 28 20:13:30.944 2018 Jun 28 20:13:31.394
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
08513 RADUGA 1 [-] 1.370 7.235E-04 0.136 0.572 0.732
24732 INTELSAT 26 (IS-26) [+] 2.043 2018 Jun 24 19:36:08.583 2018 Jun 24 19:36:15.370 2018 Jun 24 19:36:22.156
25169 IRIDIUM 52 [+] 5.286 6.679E-04 0.068 0.197 11.576
31499 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.891 2018 Jun 28 10:44:18.756 2018 Jun 28 10:44:19.187 2018 Jun 28 10:44:19.619
25105 IRIDIUM 24 [-] 6.548 6.555E-04 0.084 0.163 14.134
29989 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.861 2018 Jun 29 09:49:40.995 2018 Jun 29 09:49:41.349 2018 Jun 29 09:49:41.703
05917 METEOR 1-11 [?] 6.872 6.429E-04 0.116 0.481 3.186
10514 METEOR 2-3 [?] 6.509 2018 Jun 29 14:00:37.295 2018 Jun 29 14:00:38.857 2018 Jun 29 14:00:40.420
21152 NADEZHDA 3 [-] 6.664 5.661E-04 0.061 0.150 12.706
06207 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.578 2018 Jun 29 12:48:20.683 2018 Jun 29 12:48:21.076 2018 Jun 29 12:48:21.469

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2018 June 23 23:26:21 UTC