SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Aug 19 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Aug 19 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Aug 26 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,069 Primaries, 16,637 Secondaries (22,588 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
07490 METEOR 1-19 [?] 2.040 7.507E-03 0.030 0.054 14.234
42568 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 3.936 2017 Aug 21 01:35:36.419 2017 Aug 21 01:35:36.770 2017 Aug 21 01:35:37.121
18160 COSMOS 1864 [?] 0.978 4.707E-03 0.024 0.097 3.778
10537 SL-8 R/B [-] 0.826 2017 Aug 19 23:22:05.869 2017 Aug 19 23:22:07.192 2017 Aug 19 23:22:08.516
08799 METEOR 1-24 [?] 1.896 4.631E-03 0.043 0.061 14.798
41049 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 1.612 2017 Aug 20 19:00:17.565 2017 Aug 20 19:00:17.902 2017 Aug 20 19:00:18.240
10120 COSMOS 923 [?] 3.391 1.513E-03 0.034 0.048 14.907
04921 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 3.151 2017 Aug 22 14:58:43.293 2017 Aug 22 14:58:43.628 2017 Aug 22 14:58:43.964
40310 YAOGAN 24 [+] 2.186 1.444E-03 0.014 0.050 8.847
31147 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.510 2017 Aug 21 14:27:05.051 2017 Aug 21 14:27:05.616 2017 Aug 21 14:27:06.181
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24871 IRIDIUM 920 [-] 6.387 1.403E-03 0.039 0.164 2.024
18290 ARIANE 1 DEB [-] 6.715 2017 Aug 25 19:24:37.206 2017 Aug 25 19:24:39.675 2017 Aug 25 19:24:42.144
03597 OAO 2 [?] 2.948 1.352E-03 0.036 0.119 10.152
19945 SL-8 DEB [-] 2.754 2017 Aug 21 21:22:56.858 2017 Aug 21 21:22:57.351 2017 Aug 21 21:22:57.843
05435 EOLE 1 (CAS-A) [?] 5.470 1.285E-03 0.030 0.125 1.080
25114 ORBCOMM FM11 [+] 5.393 2017 Aug 24 22:25:04.059 2017 Aug 24 22:25:08.688 2017 Aug 24 22:25:13.317
21576 ORBCOMM-X [-] 1.369 8.062E-04 0.034 0.111 10.240
36875 METEOR 2-7 DEB [-] 1.229 2017 Aug 20 09:24:51.119 2017 Aug 20 09:24:51.607 2017 Aug 20 09:24:52.095
06965 COSMOS 614 [?] 6.297 6.862E-04 0.042 0.086 13.904
00260 THOR ABLESTAR DEB [-] 6.830 2017 Aug 25 18:23:10.291 2017 Aug 25 18:23:10.651 2017 Aug 25 18:23:11.011

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 August 19 22:32:42 UTC