SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Apr 24 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Apr 24 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 May 01 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,233 Primaries, 16,953 Secondaries (23,700 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 4.388 1.718E-02 0.042 0.137 9.883
33688 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.148 2018 Apr 27 18:06:18.093 2018 Apr 27 18:06:18.598 2018 Apr 27 18:06:19.104
11605 METEOR 2-5 [?] 0.728 4.584E-03 0.041 0.065 14.567
32110 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 0.560 2018 Apr 24 04:37:55.467 2018 Apr 24 04:37:55.811 2018 Apr 24 04:37:56.154
09846 COSMOS 894 [?] 5.492 3.706E-03 0.016 0.068 3.554
42175 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 17.313 2018 Apr 29 02:46:09.289 2018 Apr 29 02:46:10.695 2018 Apr 29 02:46:12.102
25346 IRIDIUM 75 [+] 4.340 2.635E-03 0.048 0.141 11.539
11870 SL-8 R/B [-] 4.614 2018 Apr 27 19:13:46.712 2018 Apr 27 19:13:47.145 2018 Apr 27 19:13:47.579
21574 ERS-1 [-] 2.311 1.966E-03 0.069 0.165 13.147
38208 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.797 2018 Apr 25 18:46:43.995 2018 Apr 25 18:46:44.375 2018 Apr 25 18:46:44.755
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
07574 METEOR 1-20 [?] 6.415 1.890E-03 0.065 0.099 14.702
36331 METEOR 2-8 DEB [-] 6.670 2018 Apr 30 02:44:51.152 2018 Apr 30 02:44:51.492 2018 Apr 30 02:44:51.832
12783 COSMOS 1299 [?] 6.603 1.089E-03 0.084 0.128 14.648
31246 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.257 2018 Apr 30 04:46:09.084 2018 Apr 30 04:46:09.425 2018 Apr 30 04:46:09.766
06154 COSMOS 516 [?] 5.685 1.026E-03 0.060 0.189 10.387
25412 SL-16 DEB [-] 5.378 2018 Apr 29 06:19:05.089 2018 Apr 29 06:19:05.570 2018 Apr 29 06:19:06.051
21263 NOAA 12 [-] 7.279 9.180E-04 0.053 0.157 11.172
14568 SL-8 DEB [-] 7.295 2018 Apr 30 21:11:50.449 2018 Apr 30 21:11:50.896 2018 Apr 30 21:11:51.344
10776 COSMOS 1000 [?] 1.276 7.495E-04 0.080 0.131 14.355
08597 SL-8 R/B [-] 0.970 2018 Apr 24 13:21:40.295 2018 Apr 24 13:21:40.643 2018 Apr 24 13:21:40.992

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2018 April 24 02:49:19 UTC