SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2019 Dec 05 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2019 Dec 05 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2019 Dec 12 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,943 Primaries, 17,925 Secondaries (29,492 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
44402 LEMUR-2-WANLI [+] 4.615 6.583E-03 0.006 0.026 0.007
44406 LUCKY-7 [+] 4.615 2019 Dec 10 01:22:57.591 2019 Dec 10 01:36:58.378 2019 Dec 10 01:51:01.702
14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 3.670 5.288E-03 0.095 0.197 13.992
35077 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 3.903 2019 Dec 09 02:38:58.778 2019 Dec 09 02:38:59.135 2019 Dec 09 02:38:59.492
44715 STARLINK-1009 [+] 6.339 4.618E-03 0.007 0.031 0.001
44721 STARLINK-1015 [+] 6.339 2019 Dec 11 19:25:52.729 2019 Dec 11 20:07:46.592 2019 Dec 12 03:30:08.276
24907 IRIDIUM 22 [-] 1.971 1.804E-03 0.058 0.236 4.004
25273 IRIDIUM 57 [-] 2.738 2019 Dec 07 09:41:37.504 2019 Dec 07 09:41:38.752 2019 Dec 07 09:41:39.999
40921 COSMOS 2508 [+] 4.813 1.697E-03 0.020 0.031 14.073
40773 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 8.537 2019 Dec 10 05:28:30.595 2019 Dec 10 05:28:30.950 2019 Dec 10 05:28:31.305
25489 STEX [-] 4.089 1.549E-03 0.175 0.508 11.569
33936 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 4.165 2019 Dec 09 12:42:27.564 2019 Dec 09 12:42:27.994 2019 Dec 09 12:42:28.424
18160 COSMOS 1864 [?] 5.172 1.331E-03 0.040 0.077 13.891
30436 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.197 2019 Dec 10 16:19:44.566 2019 Dec 10 16:19:44.926 2019 Dec 10 16:19:45.286
13552 COSMOS 1408 [?] 6.022 1.315E-03 0.027 0.102 7.524
25616 FORMOSAT-1 (ROCSAT 1) [-] 6.126 2019 Dec 11 10:35:55.177 2019 Dec 11 10:35:55.841 2019 Dec 11 10:35:56.506
08285 COSMOS 761 [?] 5.845 1.207E-03 0.013 0.049 6.596
03974 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 6.188 2019 Dec 11 06:55:58.617 2019 Dec 11 06:55:59.375 2019 Dec 11 06:56:00.133
15595 GEOSAT [?] 5.932 1.207E-03 0.052 0.160 10.871
30241 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.834 2019 Dec 11 08:50:55.080 2019 Dec 11 08:50:55.540 2019 Dec 11 08:50:55.999

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2019 Dec 05 17:45:39 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2019 Dec 05 17:57:15 UTC