SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Oct 16 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Oct 16 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Oct 23 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,284 Primaries, 17,015 Secondaries (24,753 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
43493 SOYUZ-MS 09 [+] 2.054 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43630 HTV-7 (KOUNOTORI 7) [+] 2.054 2018 Oct 16 12:00:00.000 2018 Oct 16 12:00:00.000 2018 Oct 23 12:00:00.000
43537 PROGRESS-MS 09 [+] 2.054 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43630 HTV-7 (KOUNOTORI 7) [+] 2.054 2018 Oct 16 12:00:00.000 2018 Oct 16 12:00:00.000 2018 Oct 23 12:00:00.000
20436 SPOT 2 [-] 2.947 5.842E-03 0.049 0.074 14.899
33962 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 3.922 2018 Oct 19 10:01:21.277 2018 Oct 19 10:01:21.613 2018 Oct 19 10:01:21.948
08845 METEOR 1-25 [?] 1.115 4.364E-03 0.044 0.063 14.839
33622 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.538 2018 Oct 16 22:09:16.392 2018 Oct 16 22:09:16.729 2018 Oct 16 22:09:17.066
01291 SOLRAD 7B [?] 2.129 3.543E-03 0.023 0.070 11.086
02825 THOR AGENA D R/B [-] 2.114 2018 Oct 18 15:14:28.844 2018 Oct 18 15:14:29.295 2018 Oct 18 15:14:29.746
26410 CLUSTER II-FM7 (SAMBA) [+] -0.291 3.007E-03 0.945 3.661 0.001
26464 CLUSTER II-FM8 (TANGO) [+] 2.910 2018 Oct 17 13:48:37.941 2018 Oct 17 15:06:37.145 2018 Oct 17 16:21:26.989
28454 RITE TARGET 1 [?] 6.410 2.738E-03 0.034 0.145 1.339
25261 ARIANE 40 R/B [-] 4.100 2018 Oct 20 13:04:46.822 2018 Oct 20 13:04:50.556 2018 Oct 20 13:04:54.289
15930 COSMOS 1670 [?] 1.583 2.116E-03 0.073 0.140 13.959
15399 SL-8 R/B [-] 2.851 2018 Oct 17 11:14:01.143 2018 Oct 17 11:14:01.501 2018 Oct 17 11:14:01.859
22823 SPOT 3 [-] 4.705 1.918E-03 0.056 0.197 8.907
30265 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.508 2018 Oct 20 15:44:59.402 2018 Oct 20 15:44:59.963 2018 Oct 20 15:45:00.524
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 7.073 1.611E-03 0.123 0.505 3.726
22343 SL-16 DEB [-] 6.755 2018 Oct 23 05:23:55.989 2018 Oct 23 05:23:57.324 2018 Oct 23 05:23:58.659

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2018 Oct 16 17:30:08 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2018 Oct 16 21:24:04 UTC