SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Aug 16 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Aug 16 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Aug 23 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,275 Primaries, 17,045 Secondaries (24,469 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
24883 ORBVIEW 2 (SEASTAR) [-] 6.201 1.931E-02 0.046 0.068 14.856
25169 IRIDIUM 52 [+] 6.674 2018 Aug 22 01:38:18.733 2018 Aug 22 01:38:19.070 2018 Aug 22 01:38:19.406
06206 COSMOS 521 [?] 5.349 6.740E-03 0.012 0.051 2.553
20804 COSMOS 2100 [?] 6.362 2018 Aug 21 05:44:57.129 2018 Aug 21 05:44:59.087 2018 Aug 21 05:45:01.045
27600 MICRO LABSAT [-] 3.466 4.441E-03 0.008 0.031 3.576
39715 SL-16 DEB [-] 4.580 2018 Aug 18 21:33:52.690 2018 Aug 18 21:33:54.088 2018 Aug 18 21:33:55.487
25043 IRIDIUM 38 [-] 6.882 3.005E-03 0.033 0.090 12.020
31768 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.994 2018 Aug 22 09:01:12.618 2018 Aug 22 09:01:13.034 2018 Aug 22 09:01:13.450
25112 ORBCOMM FM08 [+] 8.075 2.683E-03 0.094 0.311 9.965
27386 ENVISAT [-] 7.312 2018 Aug 22 23:35:47.041 2018 Aug 22 23:35:47.542 2018 Aug 22 23:35:48.043
13923 NOAA 8 [-] 3.024 2.265E-03 0.030 0.112 7.305
34430 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.362 2018 Aug 18 12:42:06.690 2018 Aug 18 12:42:07.375 2018 Aug 18 12:42:08.059
16917 COSMOS 1771 [?] 6.845 1.920E-03 0.055 0.111 13.723
35637 SL-8 R/B [-] 7.090 2018 Aug 22 01:06:30.828 2018 Aug 22 01:06:31.192 2018 Aug 22 01:06:31.556
07734 GEOS 3 [?] 2.029 1.253E-03 0.101 0.311 10.882
30139 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.313 2018 Aug 16 23:16:07.133 2018 Aug 16 23:16:07.591 2018 Aug 16 23:16:08.050
14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 3.957 1.037E-03 0.245 0.393 14.739
43295 NOAA 6 DEB [-] 4.315 2018 Aug 19 19:59:03.564 2018 Aug 19 19:59:03.902 2018 Aug 19 19:59:04.240
11288 METEOR 2-4 [?] 1.825 8.614E-04 0.100 0.142 14.793
20890 CZ-4 DEB [-] 2.544 2018 Aug 16 20:15:08.184 2018 Aug 16 20:15:08.521 2018 Aug 16 20:15:08.859

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2018 Aug 16 01:30:26 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2018 Aug 16 08:28:30 UTC