SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Apr 07 00:07 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Apr 07 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Apr 14 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,352 Primaries, 18,517 Secondaries (31,179 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
44484 AEROCUBE 10B (DOUGSAT) [+] 1.391 9.955E-03 0.005 0.021 0.000
44485 AEROCUBE 10A (JIMSAT) [+] 1.195 2020 Apr 07 00:00:00.000 2020 Apr 07 04:20:32.967 2020 Apr 14 00:00:00.000
44755 STARLINK-1050 [+] 7.024 7.305E-03 0.007 0.020 12.125
45195 STARLINK-1241 [+] 7.024 2020 Apr 13 14:34:21.084 2020 Apr 13 14:34:21.496 2020 Apr 13 14:34:21.908
07274 METEOR 1-17 [?] 7.370 5.266E-03 0.032 0.074 13.133
27433 CZ-4B DEB [-] 6.782 2020 Apr 13 13:19:06.094 2020 Apr 13 13:19:06.474 2020 Apr 13 13:19:06.855
08845 METEOR 1-25 [?] 5.511 2.827E-03 0.055 0.078 14.846
41045 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 5.289 2020 Apr 11 17:02:01.422 2020 Apr 11 17:02:01.759 2020 Apr 11 17:02:02.096
45016 OBJECT A [+] 5.491 2.086E-03 0.015 0.034 13.730
44997 COSMOS 1484 DEB [-] 5.500 2020 Apr 12 06:49:44.030 2020 Apr 12 06:49:44.395 2020 Apr 12 06:49:44.759
11060 TIROS N [P] 3.545 1.822E-03 0.042 0.071 14.488
07715 SL-3 R/B [-] 2.863 2020 Apr 09 17:06:46.991 2020 Apr 09 17:06:47.336 2020 Apr 09 17:06:47.681
24793 IRIDIUM 7 [-] 2.635 1.703E-03 0.070 0.231 9.914
16615 ARIANE 1 R/B [-] 2.198 2020 Apr 09 00:46:52.146 2020 Apr 09 00:46:52.650 2020 Apr 09 00:46:53.154
05050 COSMOS 400 [?] 0.366 1.390E-03 0.030 0.122 4.514
08597 SL-8 R/B [-] 0.711 2020 Apr 07 03:50:40.244 2020 Apr 07 03:50:41.351 2020 Apr 07 03:50:42.458
06920 NOAA 3 [-] 3.207 1.272E-03 0.071 0.177 12.188
06125 SL-8 R/B [-] 2.801 2020 Apr 09 08:57:53.322 2020 Apr 09 08:57:53.732 2020 Apr 09 08:57:54.142
41473 YAOGAN 30 [+] 2.734 1.243E-03 0.021 0.039 14.353
00318 THOR ABLESTAR DEB [-] 3.177 2020 Apr 09 12:58:40.886 2020 Apr 09 12:58:41.235 2020 Apr 09 12:58:41.583

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Apr 07 01:54:22 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Apr 07 08:09:30 UTC