SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Jul 10 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Jul 10 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Jul 17 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,531 Primaries, 18,839 Secondaries (33,900 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
44764 STARLINK-1059 [+] 4.792 2.712E-02 0.003 0.012 2.078
44770 STARLINK-1065 [+] 5.424 2020 Jul 15 01:00:03.530 2020 Jul 15 01:00:05.936 2020 Jul 15 01:00:08.342
15171 COSMOS 1589 [?] 2.797 1.696E-02 0.006 0.024 4.334
44996 COSMOS 2491 DEB [-] 4.246 2020 Jul 12 16:29:36.241 2020 Jul 12 16:29:37.395 2020 Jul 12 16:29:38.549
41026 YAOGAN 28 [+] 5.159 7.897E-03 0.006 0.022 6.558
30734 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.939 2020 Jul 15 16:26:38.008 2020 Jul 15 16:26:38.770 2020 Jul 15 16:26:39.532
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 3.528 6.445E-03 0.143 0.419 12.026
39769 RISING 2 [+] 2.819 2020 Jul 13 07:23:49.288 2020 Jul 13 07:23:49.702 2020 Jul 13 07:23:50.116
43479 IRIDIUM 152 [+] 6.917 3.456E-03 0.029 0.051 14.412
13028 SL-8 R/B [-] 7.049 2020 Jul 16 21:24:21.589 2020 Jul 16 21:24:21.936 2020 Jul 16 21:24:22.283
43775 OBJECT T [+] 7.046 3.340E-03 0.014 0.022 14.864
45140 ONEWEB-0028 [+] 6.606 2020 Jul 17 04:33:10.288 2020 Jul 17 04:33:10.625 2020 Jul 17 04:33:10.961
16647 COSMOS 1736 [?] 0.825 1.833E-03 0.066 0.180 11.912
20509 SL-8 R/B [-] 1.213 2020 Jul 11 00:20:08.612 2020 Jul 11 00:20:09.031 2020 Jul 11 00:20:09.451
07209 METEOR 1-16 [?] 1.291 1.719E-03 0.071 0.100 14.901
18467 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 0.972 2020 Jul 11 09:58:06.897 2020 Jul 11 09:58:07.233 2020 Jul 11 09:58:07.568
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 0.144 1.568E-03 0.190 0.335 14.383
34159 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 0.171 2020 Jul 10 14:14:39.366 2020 Jul 10 14:14:39.712 2020 Jul 10 14:14:40.059
11288 METEOR 2-4 [?] 5.865 1.415E-03 0.078 0.111 14.843
41415 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 6.839 2020 Jul 16 07:29:28.134 2020 Jul 16 07:29:28.470 2020 Jul 16 07:29:28.807

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Jul 10 18:58:50 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Jul 11 02:08:48 UTC