SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2019 Feb 22 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2019 Feb 22 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2019 Mar 01 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,559 Primaries, 17,397 Secondaries (26,742 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25489 STEX [-] 6.192 1.000E+00 0.000 2.847 14.675
36875 METEOR 2-7 DEB [-] 10.310 2019 Feb 28 09:43:19.198 2019 Feb 28 09:43:19.478 2019 Feb 28 09:43:19.758
25489 STEX [-] 6.473 1.000E+00 0.000 2.338 14.963
31499 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 9.798 2019 Feb 28 16:28:10.687 2019 Feb 28 16:28:10.983 2019 Feb 28 16:28:11.278
25489 STEX [-] 0.912 1.000E+00 0.000 1.726 5.666
40235 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.562 2019 Feb 23 02:59:52.881 2019 Feb 23 02:59:53.709 2019 Feb 23 02:59:54.537
25489 STEX [-] 1.016 1.000E+00 0.000 2.906 7.917
17717 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 1.895 2019 Feb 23 05:30:08.168 2019 Feb 23 05:30:08.682 2019 Feb 23 05:30:09.196
25489 STEX [-] 1.338 1.000E+00 0.000 2.439 2.072
35796 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 1.622 2019 Feb 23 13:13:50.188 2019 Feb 23 13:13:52.294 2019 Feb 23 13:13:54.401
25489 STEX [-] 1.918 3.796E-01 1.141 3.322 13.454
30821 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.340 2019 Feb 24 03:09:03.532 2019 Feb 24 03:09:03.810 2019 Feb 24 03:09:04.087
25489 STEX [-] 5.575 3.581E-01 1.232 3.328 14.248
05395 1971-067 AKM [-] 5.277 2019 Feb 27 18:55:21.654 2019 Feb 27 18:55:21.916 2019 Feb 27 18:55:22.178
25489 STEX [-] 2.231 3.369E-01 1.066 3.957 5.063
32098 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.412 2019 Feb 24 10:40:10.533 2019 Feb 24 10:40:11.137 2019 Feb 24 10:40:11.741
25489 STEX [-] 6.714 3.263E-01 1.142 4.007 7.511
33934 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.732 2019 Feb 28 22:15:21.968 2019 Feb 28 22:15:22.366 2019 Feb 28 22:15:22.764
25489 STEX [-] 0.292 3.012E-01 1.562 3.595 14.599
26152 CZ-4B DEB [-] 1.044 2019 Feb 22 12:07:02.501 2019 Feb 22 12:07:02.739 2019 Feb 22 12:07:02.977

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2019 Feb 22 17:38:00 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2019 Feb 22 19:09:24 UTC