SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Oct 01 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Oct 01 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Oct 08 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,780 Primaries, 19,361 Secondaries (39,104 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
26824 INTELSAT 901 (IS-901) [+] 0.647 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44625 MEV-1 [+] 0.647 2020 Oct 01 00:00:00.000 2020 Oct 01 00:00:00.000 2020 Oct 08 00:00:00.000
44421 COSMOS 2535 [+] 1.026 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44424 COSMOS 2536 [+] 1.026 2020 Oct 01 00:00:00.000 2020 Oct 01 16:51:58.521 2020 Oct 08 00:00:00.000
13243 COSMOS 1372 [?] 2.611 1.079E-01 0.009 0.021 12.694
20509 SL-8 R/B [-] 2.571 2020 Oct 03 00:01:51.353 2020 Oct 03 00:01:51.747 2020 Oct 03 00:01:52.141
13718 METEOR 2-9 [?] 6.769 4.535E-02 0.012 0.022 14.289
04867 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 6.777 2020 Oct 07 04:02:10.151 2020 Oct 07 04:02:10.501 2020 Oct 07 04:02:10.851
07734 GEOS 3 [?] 3.916 5.476E-03 0.042 0.170 4.523
43302 METEOR 2-7 DEB [-] 4.145 2020 Oct 03 23:47:56.704 2020 Oct 03 23:47:57.809 2020 Oct 03 23:47:58.914
04327 SERT 2 [?] 3.691 2.563E-03 0.040 0.170 1.333
28612 NIMBUS 2 DEB [-] 4.553 2020 Oct 03 21:26:14.415 2020 Oct 03 21:26:18.165 2020 Oct 03 21:26:21.915
46459 JILIN-01 GAOFEN 3G [+] 1.469 1.996E-03 0.012 0.044 8.051
43031 CZ-2C R/B [-] 1.415 2020 Oct 01 23:14:42.445 2020 Oct 01 23:14:43.066 2020 Oct 01 23:14:43.687
06659 METEOR 1-15 [?] 3.779 1.889E-03 0.067 0.096 14.829
30830 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.563 2020 Oct 03 21:18:29.283 2020 Oct 03 21:18:29.620 2020 Oct 03 21:18:29.958
08473 COSMOS 785 [?] 3.235 1.821E-03 0.042 0.151 8.469
00324 THOR ABLESTAR DEB [-] 3.461 2020 Oct 03 18:04:43.391 2020 Oct 03 18:04:43.982 2020 Oct 03 18:04:44.572
46305 SPACEBEE-10 [+] 5.777 1.765E-03 0.012 0.049 0.000
46308 SPACEBEE-16 [+] 5.777 2020 Oct 05 04:19:30.758 2020 Oct 06 06:39:57.201 2020 Oct 07 05:47:51.285

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Oct 01 03:31:30 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Oct 01 05:27:19 UTC