SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Aug 14 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Aug 14 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Aug 21 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,276 Primaries, 17,016 Secondaries (24,461 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 1.548 1.000E+00 0.000 0.039 14.327
18282 COSMOS 1691 DEB [-] 0.009 2018 Aug 14 12:20:34.475 2018 Aug 14 12:20:34.824 2018 Aug 14 12:20:35.173
26113 IMAGE [P] 8.881 1.772E-02 0.914 1.994 11.796
28608 EXPLORER 38 DEB [-] 3.469 2018 Aug 17 23:33:00.774 2018 Aug 17 23:33:01.162 2018 Aug 17 23:33:01.551
12803 COSMOS 1304 [?] 6.005 6.986E-03 0.010 0.033 10.274
30241 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.900 2018 Aug 18 15:14:34.489 2018 Aug 18 15:14:34.975 2018 Aug 18 15:14:35.462
09443 COSMOS 858 [?] 2.443 5.431E-03 0.021 0.039 14.339
11111 COSMOS 1048 [?] 2.405 2018 Aug 15 07:51:54.134 2018 Aug 15 07:51:54.483 2018 Aug 15 07:51:54.831
39443 QUBESCOUT-S1 [-] 2.024 4.467E-03 0.007 0.031 1.803
40501 DMSP 5D-2 F13 DEB [-] 2.345 2018 Aug 14 17:35:04.681 2018 Aug 14 17:35:07.454 2018 Aug 14 17:35:10.227
06148 COSMOS 514 [?] 7.990 4.334E-03 0.011 0.044 4.754
00134 THOR ABLESTAR DEB [-] 8.069 2018 Aug 20 16:56:11.541 2018 Aug 20 16:56:12.593 2018 Aug 20 16:56:13.645
07005 COSMOS 626 [?] 0.865 1.672E-03 0.085 0.152 14.141
08646 SL-8 R/B [-] 0.825 2018 Aug 15 09:31:20.061 2018 Aug 15 09:31:20.414 2018 Aug 15 09:31:20.767
40036 FLOCK 1C-6 [P] 3.852 1.135E-03 0.039 0.056 15.115
16496 SL-14 R/B [-] 5.382 2018 Aug 18 04:45:36.913 2018 Aug 18 04:45:37.244 2018 Aug 18 04:45:37.575
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 2.231 1.124E-03 0.421 0.821 13.401
07198 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 2.301 2018 Aug 15 04:43:52.246 2018 Aug 15 04:43:52.614 2018 Aug 15 04:43:52.982
27424 AQUA [+] 7.080 1.063E-03 0.108 0.253 13.245
04141 THORAD AGENA D DEB [-] 5.483 2018 Aug 20 00:25:58.799 2018 Aug 20 00:25:59.176 2018 Aug 20 00:25:59.553

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2018 Aug 14 17:28:01 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2018 Aug 14 23:16:25 UTC