SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Dec 14 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Dec 14 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Dec 21 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,460 Primaries, 17,200 Secondaries (25,429 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25489 STEX [-] 6.719 1.000E+00 0.000 2.914 10.073
41737 WORLDVIEW-2 DEB [-] 6.996 2018 Dec 20 04:52:04.352 2018 Dec 20 04:52:04.756 2018 Dec 20 04:52:05.159
43845 CHANG'E-4 [+] 6.234 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43846 CZ-3B R/B [-] 6.234 2018 Dec 14 00:00:00.000 2018 Dec 14 00:00:00.000 2018 Dec 21 00:00:00.000
25489 STEX [-] 1.013 1.000E+00 0.000 2.522 13.740
40796 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 22.490 2018 Dec 14 11:56:04.138 2018 Dec 14 11:56:04.452 2018 Dec 14 11:56:04.767
14483 COSMOS 1508 [?] 1.172 1.000E+00 0.000 1.890 6.709
25489 STEX [-] 1.538 2018 Dec 15 00:31:12.455 2018 Dec 15 00:31:13.145 2018 Dec 15 00:31:13.835
25489 STEX [-] 4.119 1.000E+00 0.000 2.464 14.837
34540 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 4.033 2018 Dec 17 14:28:26.356 2018 Dec 17 14:28:26.649 2018 Dec 17 14:28:26.942
25489 STEX [-] 5.525 1.000E+00 0.000 0.988 14.711
34949 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.599 2018 Dec 19 00:13:12.544 2018 Dec 19 00:13:12.877 2018 Dec 19 00:13:13.211
13241 COSMOS 1371 [?] 5.357 1.000E+00 0.000 0.003 14.829
17118 ARIANE 1 DEB [-] 6.308 2018 Dec 19 05:19:38.056 2018 Dec 19 05:19:38.393 2018 Dec 19 05:19:38.730
25489 STEX [-] 6.508 1.000E+00 0.000 0.945 14.622
35161 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.619 2018 Dec 19 23:47:47.040 2018 Dec 19 23:47:47.376 2018 Dec 19 23:47:47.711
25489 STEX [-] 4.650 4.047E-01 0.851 3.437 3.318
14809 SL-8 DEB [-] 5.193 2018 Dec 18 03:13:07.157 2018 Dec 18 03:13:08.251 2018 Dec 18 03:13:09.346
25489 STEX [-] 4.198 3.017E-01 1.263 4.191 8.985
30554 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.411 2018 Dec 17 16:22:08.639 2018 Dec 17 16:22:08.943 2018 Dec 17 16:22:09.246

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2018 Dec 14 01:34:53 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2018 Dec 14 08:24:54 UTC