SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2021 Feb 25 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2021 Feb 25 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2021 Mar 04 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 6,437 Primaries, 20,115 Secondaries (46,878 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
12645 INTERCOSMOS 22 [?] 5.204 4.226E-02 0.005 0.007 14.871
31974 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.932 2021 Mar 02 09:45:47.559 2021 Mar 02 09:45:47.895 2021 Mar 02 09:45:48.232
47453 LEMUR-2-SAOIRSEDH5GUO [+] 6.300 1.514E-02 0.004 0.017 0.008
47491 FLOCK 4S-4 [+] 6.300 2021 Mar 03 17:11:37.354 2021 Mar 03 17:23:26.335 2021 Mar 03 17:35:15.481
44349 FORMOSAT 7-1 [+] 1.561 1.311E-02 0.005 0.016 9.418
44402 LEMUR-2-WANLI [+] 2.415 2021 Feb 26 02:20:26.257 2021 Feb 26 02:20:26.788 2021 Feb 26 02:20:27.318
45679 STARLINK-1394 [+] 6.954 7.787E-03 0.006 0.022 6.951
46045 STARLINK-1591 [+] 6.879 2021 Mar 04 06:10:09.268 2021 Mar 04 06:10:09.988 2021 Mar 04 06:10:10.707
45077 STARLINK-1182 [+] 7.576 5.775E-03 0.007 0.026 6.963
45772 STARLINK-1470 [+] 7.783 2021 Mar 04 08:57:20.109 2021 Mar 04 08:57:20.827 2021 Mar 04 08:57:21.545
47665 STARLINK-2056 [+] 1.195 5.544E-03 0.007 0.028 0.004
47666 STARLINK-2057 [+] 1.195 2021 Feb 26 12:24:42.993 2021 Feb 26 12:40:47.790 2021 Feb 26 12:57:00.776
47627 STARLINK-1972 [+] 0.596 3.755E-03 0.008 0.034 0.004
47632 STARLINK-1992 [+] 0.596 2021 Feb 25 22:02:29.064 2021 Feb 25 22:17:39.201 2021 Feb 25 22:32:50.329
47627 STARLINK-1972 [+] 0.533 3.751E-03 0.008 0.034 0.004
47632 STARLINK-1992 [+] 0.533 2021 Feb 25 20:31:37.151 2021 Feb 25 20:46:51.188 2021 Feb 25 21:02:06.045
08293 METEOR 1-22 [?] 6.453 3.031E-03 0.031 0.130 2.653
29870 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.908 2021 Mar 03 18:00:44.488 2021 Mar 03 18:00:46.372 2021 Mar 03 18:00:48.256
14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 2.240 2.890E-03 0.117 0.294 12.990
45067 STARLINK-1150 [+] 2.987 2021 Feb 27 12:59:27.856 2021 Feb 27 12:59:28.240 2021 Feb 27 12:59:28.625

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The TLE Data button links to a page which provides the TLEs used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.